Whither BSD?
Another year has passed, and I'm going to use that as an excuse to look back where we've come from and try to guess where we're going. This is the fifteenth article I have written in this series, over a period of 2½ years. During that time, the free software landscape has changed considerably.

Free software is nothing new. In fact, it predates commercial software. In the really early days, people didn't charge for their software, because it was a research activity. Even thirty years ago, organizations like DECUS distributed free software for Digital Equipment's machines. They've changed their name to Encompass now, but they still distribute free, user-developed software.

Let's recapitulate what happened since then:

By the time Daemon News began, in late 1998, Linux was way ahead in terms of mindshare and commercial development. Looking from my own perspective in the FreeBSD community, I saw:

Looking back now, things have changed. For example, all but one member of the FreeBSD core team uses FreeBSD in his daytime job, and that one member will catch up in a few months time. This is not why they are part of the core team: the core team was elected, and nobody knew this detail. It's indicative of the change in the way we do our work. Despite the nay-sayers, BSD is still there, alive and kicking. As far as I can tell, it's becoming better known all the time. On the other hand, the love affair the investors had with Linux seems to have cooled down somewhat, and they're no longer paying ridiculous sums of money for stock in Linux companies. This is not any fault of Linux: the stock market had overreacted in the first place, and it's gradually coming to its senses.

But what about this ``we're not in this for the money'' attitude? It's rather reminiscent of Bill Jolitz, who left BSDI because they planned to make money with BSD/386. The fact of life is, of course, that we need money to live. The real question is whether you want to make money doing things you like, or make money so that you can do the things you like. Certainly the question of open source is different from the question of making money doing the work. In the latter case, you're going to have a manager who tells you, more or less gently, what to do. You don't release your software when you think it's ready, you release your software when the team agrees it's the right time. The ``right'' time can depend on many other factors than the maturity of the code--just look at Microsoft for a good example.

Last year the German magazine c't printed an editorial in which they suggested that IBM's involvement with Linux was not necessarily beneficial to Linux. Obviously any large company has a reason to spend money, they argued, but they weren't sure what IBM's motives were. Just recently, Techweb published a story entitled Is Linus Killing Linux?, in which they argue in a similar vein, that big corporations want to have a say in the evolution of Linux.

So what does that mean to Linux? There are two separate issues: will it become less free, and will it become worse?

Not everything in commercial software is bad. After all, until free operating systems came around, we all used commercial ones, and some of the features were quite good. So what's the problem?

As I see it, we face the following potential threats^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hissues:

So why isn't there a danger that BSD will fork, and that the predominant version will not be free? Simple: people have already tried that. Many of the UNIX systems of the 80s were based on BSD, for example SunOS and Ultrix. Sure, they switched to System V, but if you look at how the pure System V software companies are doing today, you won't see any likelihood that they will want to encumber themselves with the maintenance of a large code base when others will do it for free.

Where does the money come from?

One way or another, we can be sure that things will continue to change. The biggest change we have seen so far is that people have put a lot of money into free software, mainly in the Linux space, in the hope of ridiculous profits on the stock market. Those people are now realising that investing in Open Source is not a license to print money. Companies working with Open Source will need to make a profit.

But how do we make a profit? Conventional wisdom has it that you make money by creating a product and selling it. Well, it's difficult to make money by selling free software, so the product needs to be something else. Services? Packaged solutions? Support?

One of the issues we're seeing is a difference in viewpoint between the sales people, and the technical people. It's not that they don't want to see the other side, it's just that they're so far apart that they have difficulty. I'm not pretending I know the answers, but it's obvious that the current practice of creating distributions of Linux and then giving them away is not going to work well in the long term. I'll discuss that issue in the next article.

Nay-sayers department

Some time ago I reported on the condition at my daughter Yana's school (see the section ``No programming, please'' at the bottom of the article). In particular, I complained about the arbitrary rules they applied. Well, this year we got another form to sign (we had refused to sign the last one), and it was a lot better. They still talked about hacking utilities, but the nonsense like deep directories was gone, so we signed it.

On the other hand, Yana has her own laptop (running FreeBSD, of course), and it has an Ethernet card. So one day when I had to go to her school anyway, I brought her laptop with me, and we went to the library to see if we could connect.

We had the usual problem: find a live Ethernet jack. The obvious thing to do was to disconnect a running machine. Before doing so, I looked at the screen. That didn't look like Microsoft. In fact, it looked like an unconfigured X display with Netscape running. On a hunch, I pressed Ctrl-Alt-F1 and read:

FreeBSD/i386 (dhcp1299.strathalbyn.edu.au) (ttyv0)

login:

I laughed so hard that Yana tells me I went bright red in the face. And of course we had no trouble connecting to the network. It was handy, though, to have the Netscape on the FreeBSD box to tell us how to set the proxy.

What was that about the imminent demise of BSD?